CAPEX-IQ
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◇ LIVE · TRACKING 2026 HYPERSCALER CAPEX

Capex flows downhill.
Alpha pools at the
choke point
.

CAPEX-IQ reads earnings-call language, filed backlogs, and customer concentration to find the narrowest link in the AI supply chain — then grades its own signals against the market.

2026 // CAPEX-IQ PLATFORM V2.0
AI-POWERED SUPPLY-CHAIN NLP
01 · THE FLOW

Follow the money down the chain.

Search-grounded guidance per hyperscaler — tracked and revised weekly, not a training-data guess. Ribbons fan out to six physical tracks, widths proportional to dollars. The guidance trend is the actual signal: the first derivative of hyperscaler capex.

Per-company sector mix isn’t disclosed anywhere — ribbons fan proportionally; the footnote says so.

Illustrative example · sample capex values and allocations

⚡ How capital flows to suppliers
Open the dashboard for current guidance and history
02 · THE SIGNALS

Hear the strain before it prints.

NLP over every earnings call in the chain — “on allocation”, “sold out through”, “lead times extended” — quarters before it shows up in consensus. Each hit is classified: bottleneck owner, or merely input-constrained.

Illustrative example · sample wording and stress scores

🎙 Transcript stress How transcript signals appear
AXTI STRESS 82 BOTTLENECK OWNER

Example wording: “We remain on allocation for indium-phosphide substrates through year end.”

COHR STRESS 74 INPUT-CONSTRAINED

Example wording: “Lead times on optical engines have extended to fifty-two weeks.”

The wording above is written for this example. Dashboard signals include supporting excerpts from the source earnings call.
03 · THE SCORE

One number per name: ⬢ CBS.

The Composite Bottleneck Score blends a company’s bottleneck evidence into one 0–100 number, with supporting inputs available for review.

Transcript stress
.50
XBRL backlog
.35
Filed concentration
.15

Illustrative example · sample scores, changes, and sparklines

⬢ Bottleneck score movers Weekly score changes
AXTIInP substrates ⬢ 84 +12.4 HEATING
USARrare-earth magnets ⬢ 77 +9.8 HEATING
MPWRpower modules ⬢ 71 +6.1 STABLE
LITEoptical modules ⬢ 66 −2.3 COOLING
graph-inherited risk deliberately not blended in — CBS measures intrinsic heat; the graph radiates it
04 · THE BLAST RADIUS

Stress doesn’t stay put.

A curated supplier → customer graph radiates each bottleneck downstream with criticality-weighted decay — an InP constraint at AXT flags Lumentum and Coherent as input-risk and traces all the way to the hyperscalers. Where a 10-K discloses customer concentration, the edge upgrades to the filed percentage.

Open the dashboard and select a company to explore its suppliers, customers, and supporting evidence.

Illustrative example · sample relationships, risk scores, and exposure

🕸 Dependency graph How a constraint spreads
AXTI STRESS 82 LITE AT RISK 62 COHR AT RISK 57 MSFT MILD 31 META MILD 27 InP substrate constraint optical modules hyperscalers
LITE via AXTI · sample exposure 34% · 1 hop
05 · THE SCOUT

The map hunts its own blind spots.

A weekly AI scout reads bottleneck news per track — shortages, allocation, sole-source language — and proposes names not yet on the map. Every ticker is identity-verified and enriched with the same transcript + XBRL snapshot before a human approves it.

Illustrative example · sample candidates and review actions

🔭 Bottleneck scout Administrator review
POET PENDING
optical interposers — sole-source language in 3 sources · STRESS 58 on snapshot
Approve Reject
FN PENDING
precision optical packaging — extended lead-time mentions · order gap +38pp
Approve Reject
claimed company name must match the symbol — hallucinated tickers are dropped
◇ PROSPECTIVE SIGNALS GRADED ON FORWARD RETURNS VS QQQ

If the edge fades, the scoreboard says so.

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