CAPEX-IQ
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◇ LIVE · TRACKING 2026 HYPERSCALER CAPEX

Capex flows downhill.
Alpha pools at the choke point.

CAPEX-IQ reads earnings-call language, filed backlogs, and customer concentration to find the narrowest link in the AI supply chain — then grades its own signals against the market.

🎙 Transcript stress STRESS 82
AXTI BOTTLENECK OWNER

“…we remain on allocation for indium-phosphide substrates through year end…”

Q2’26 earnings call · verbatim
2026 // CAPEX-IQ PLATFORM V2.0
AI-POWERED SUPPLY-CHAIN NLP
01 · THE FLOW

Follow the money down the chain.

Search-grounded guidance per hyperscaler — tracked and revised weekly, not a training-data guess. Ribbons fan out to six physical tracks, widths proportional to dollars. The guidance trend is the actual signal: the first derivative of hyperscaler capex.

Per-company sector mix isn’t disclosed anywhere — ribbons fan proportionally; the footnote says so.
⚡ Capex Sankey · 2026E guidance
grounded weekly · history in capex_intel_history
02 · THE SIGNALS

Hear the strain before it prints.

NLP over every earnings call in the chain — “on allocation”, “sold out through”, “lead times extended” — quarters before it shows up in consensus. Each hit is classified: bottleneck owner, or merely input-constrained.

🎙 Transcript stress weekly scan · verbatim only
AXTI STRESS 82 BOTTLENECK OWNER

“…we remain on allocation for indium-phosphide substrates through year end…”

COHR STRESS 74 INPUT-CONSTRAINED

“…lead times on optical engines have extended to fifty-two weeks…”

lexicon flags the call → AI scores severity 0–100 · supporting quotes must be verbatim
03 · THE SCORE

One number per name: ⬢ CBS.

The Composite Bottleneck Score blends everything the system knows about a name’s own bottleneck evidence into one 0–100 number — inputs stored per row, so every score is auditable.

Transcript stress
.50
XBRL backlog
.35
Filed concentration
.15
⬢ Bottleneck score movers weekly Δ · Telegram digest on Δ ≥ 15
AXTIInP substrates ⬢ 84 +12.4 HEATING
USARrare-earth magnets ⬢ 77 +9.8 HEATING
MPWRpower modules ⬢ 71 +6.1 STABLE
LITEoptical modules ⬢ 66 −2.3 COOLING
graph-inherited risk deliberately not blended in — CBS measures intrinsic heat; the graph radiates it
04 · THE BLAST RADIUS

Stress doesn’t stay put.

A curated supplier → customer graph radiates each bottleneck downstream with criticality-weighted decay — an InP constraint at AXT flags Lumentum and Coherent as input-risk and traces all the way to the hyperscalers. Where a 10-K discloses customer concentration, the edge upgrades to the filed percentage.

click any node in the terminal to trace upstream suppliers and downstream blast radius — auditable, hop by hop
🕸 Dependency graph ~56 nodes · ~112 edges · filed edge weights
AXTI STRESS 82 LITE AT RISK 62 COHR AT RISK 57 MSFT MILD 31 META MILD 27 InP substrate constraint optical modules hyperscalers
LITE at risk via AXTI · 82 · InP (filed 34%) · 1 hop
05 · THE SCOUT

The map hunts its own blind spots.

A weekly AI scout reads bottleneck news per track — shortages, allocation, sole-source language — and proposes names not yet on the map. Every ticker is identity-verified and enriched with the same transcript + XBRL snapshot before a human approves it.

🔭 Bottleneck scout weekly · search-grounded
POET PENDING
optical interposers — sole-source language in 3 sources · STRESS 58 on snapshot
Approve Reject
FN PENDING
precision optical packaging — extended lead-time mentions · order gap +38pp
Approve Reject
claimed company name must match the symbol — hallucinated tickers are dropped
◇ EVERY SIGNAL GRADED ON FORWARD RETURNS VS QQQ

If the edge fades, the scoreboard says so.

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